In 2023, Americans for Tax Reform launched The Sustainable Budget Project, a new venture that monitors state government spending and tracks which states have or have not enacted sustainable budgets. We have updated these data through 2023 and provided budget limits for FY 2025.

The Sustainable Budget Project defines a sustainable budget as one that limits the pace of state government spending to lower than the rate of population growth plus inflation, which accounts for the average taxpayer’s ability to pay for government spending. 

  • The Sustainable Budget Project looks at the changes in state government spending over the past decade and the next fiscal year. The findings illustrate how, in most states, overspending, not under-taxation, is the problem.

From 2014 to 2023, the following happened:

  • Federal spending shot up by 81.7%, nearly four times faster than the 23.2% increase in the rate of population growth plus inflation.
  • Had the federal government limited the growth in spending to the rate of population growth plus inflation during that decade, the federal government would’ve spent $2.1 trillion less in 2023 than the $6.47 trillion.
  • If the federal government had done this over the entire decade, the national debt would have increased by $1.8 trillion instead of the actual $12.8 trillion. If this had been done over the last two decades since 2004, the cumulative national debt would have increased by less than $700 billion instead of $20.2 trillion.
  • This means that following a sustainable budget would help leave more money in Americans’ pockets so that they can flourish. 

Aggregate state spending, excluding funds received from the federal government, by the 50 state governments increased by 59.1% during that decade. 

  • Had their spending grown by no more than the rate of population growth plus inflation from 2014 to 2023, state governments would’ve spent $1.44 trillion in 2023, which is $430 billion less than the $1.87 trillion that all state governments spent. 
  • If the states had done this over the entire decade, cumulative spending would have been $1.4 trillion less than what was actually spent, resulting in more money in people’s pockets.

Results

American taxpayers could have been spared more than $2.5 trillion in taxes and debt just in 2023 if federal and state governments had grown no faster than the rate of population growth plus inflation during the previous decade. And this would be even more if we considered the cumulative savings over the period.  

Six states held growth in state funds and all funds below the rate of population growth plus inflation over the last decade, thereby keeping taxes lower than the average taxpayer can afford:

  • Alaska
  • Colorado
  • North Dakota
  • Oklahoma
  • Texas
  • Wyoming

Seven states held growth in state funds, but not all funds, below the rate of population growth plus inflation over the last decade, thereby keeping taxes for state funds lower than the average taxpayer can afford.  

  • Louisiana
  • Massachusetts
  • Montana
  • North Carolina
  • Ohio
  • Rhode Island
  • Wyoming

No state held growth in all funds, but not state funds, below the rate of population growth plus inflation over the last decade.

Click on a state in the map or in the dropdown menu below to see the following:

  • How government spending has changed in each state for all funds (including federal funds) and state funds (excluding federal funds) over the past decade,
  • How the changes compare to the average rate of population growth plus inflation over the last three years,
  • What the dollar amount of the upcoming fiscal year budget should be below to be classified as a sustainable budget, and
  • How each state’s measures compare with other states and other helpful fiscal and economic facts.

See Historical Spending Information and Other Fiscal Facts For Each State

Want to learn more?

Check out the methodology!

See our methodology